As of March 30, 519,000 confirmed cases worldwide. The epidemic is affecting the photovoltaic market. According to the China Photovoltaic Industry Association, the global GW-level market will reach more than 16 in 2019.
At present, there are two general attitudes regarding the impact of the epidemic on the industry. One thinks that its impact is great, which is a challenge for the photovoltaic industry. Another believes that the epidemic has also brought opportunities to the photovoltaic industry.
At present, the domestic epidemic is basically over, and everyone resumes production, while overseas epidemics are spreading and demand is no longer there. The result is that capacity is up, demand is down, oversupply is coming, and product prices are about to fall. And it's worth noting: At this time, the price reduction of component products cannot wake up demand.
PVInfolink analysis believes that in the silicon material link, the current atmosphere of overseas markets is higher than the actual number of new orders. There are fewer orders for battery chips, and the prices are temporarily chaotic. In the component link, projects in various countries will be suspended more or less, and the impact of household and industrial roof projects is particularly obvious. The second quarter will become an empty window for overseas demand.
For the overall situation of the photovoltaic market in 2020, industry insiders Wang Shujuan predicts. Affected by the epidemic, the overseas market may be lowered by 15GW than originally expected. The domestic market will increase by 5-10GW compared with last year. In general, the global market will be slightly worse than last year, and the total global installed capacity is expected to be around 120GW.
Similarly, BNEF also lowered its forecast for global photovoltaic demand in 2020, from 121-152GW released on February 19, 2020 to 108-143GW.
The California Photovoltaic Association said that for California residents who have been isolated from their homes due to the new crown epidemic. The installation and maintenance of renewable energy resources such as optical storage systems have become a "basic service" in the state.
In addition to judging the short-term production and sales and market environment impact under the epidemic, some analysts believe that this may be an opportunity from the perspective of the photovoltaic industry.
In order to mitigate the impact of the epidemic, governments around the world have proactively introduced corresponding measures. The International Energy Agency calls for emergency clean energy assistance programmes.
A few days ago, the Director General of the Indian Customs General Administration issued a public notice to clean up imported goods. According to the notice, customs declaration forms for imported general manifests (IGMs) submitted on March 21 to 31, 2020 or delayed before April 3, 2020 are exempt from late fees. This is a temporary relief for the Indian photovoltaic industry, which relies on imported modules.
On March 20, the Dutch Solar Industry Association requested the Ministry of Economic Affairs and Climate Policy to extend the grid connection period of solar projects constructed under the SDE + large renewable energy incentive plan.
In mid-March, Australian Prime Minister Morrison announced an economic stimulus package totaling A $ 17.6 billion (A $ 1, or US $ 0.64) to deal with the impact of the new crown pneumonia epidemic. Among them, economic responses include stimulus policies for the installation of commercial and industrial solar energy. Tax deductions will apply to industrial and commercial and large power plant installations.